Long war with Iran: A dangerous repetition of history, but with even less preparation

2026-03-24 - 16:10

Shafaq News By David L. Phillips* It is a common misconception that George W. Bush launched the Iraq War in 2003 without a plan for stabilization. In reality, the issue was not a lack of planning, but rather a deliberate disregard for it. Neo-conservatives within the Bush administration sidelined the "Future of Iraq Project" because they found its warnings inconvenient and its projected difficulties too daunting to acknowledge. As a member of the State Department’s Near Eastern Affairs Bureau at the time, I witnessed this comprehensive effort firsthand. The Democratic Principles Working Group was tasked with drafting blueprints for federalism, de-Baathification, and transitional justice. More than 200 Iraqis across 17 working groups produced a 13-volume, 1,200-page analysis. It was a roadmap for rising from the ashes of conflict, but it was a map the administration chose not to follow. Today, we see a dangerous repetition of history, but with even less preparation. There was no comparable planning for the current confrontation with Iran. President Donald Trump seemingly expected a "cakewalk," rushing into hostilities without engaging directly affected Iranians or establishing a clear postwar vision. Convinced that the regime would simply fold under pressure, the administration focused almost exclusively on target selection. This overconfidence ignored critical intelligence. Despite Trump’s claims that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were annihilated following the June 2025 airstrikes, US intelligence estimates consistently suggested that Tehran was still at least a decade away from a functional weapon. Furthermore, while the Bush administration took pains to build an international coalition in 2003, Trump devalued allies —only to find himself scrambling to recruit them once Iran began to fight back with unexpected ferocity. The administration’s failure to anticipate Iran’s regional reach has proven disastrous. Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth seemingly underestimated Iran’s willingness to strike its neighbors. In the United Arab Emirates, Iranian strikes hit Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Fujairah, damaging oil facilities and setting the Fairmont Hotel ablaze. Missiles and drones have targeted Riyadh and the Aramco facility in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, while US 5th Fleet fuel storage in Bahrain and airbases in Qatar and Kuwait have come under fire. The escalatory spiral has even drawn in Jordan and Oman. Following an Israeli strike on South Pars —the world’s largest natural gas field— Tehran retaliated by hitting energy complexes in Qatar. Perhaps most critically, the administration failed to secure the Strait of Hormuz. With 20 percent of the world’s oil transit now blocked, the US is playing a desperate game of catch-up, deploying 5,000-pound bunker buster bombs in an attempt to reopen the waterway. Of all the regional players, Iraq remains the most vulnerable. Sharing a 1,500-kilometer border with Iran, Iraq’s security and economy are inextricably linked to its neighbor. The Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) has doubled in size over the last two years, now commanding a $2.7 billion budget. Dominant Shia factions like the Badr Organization and Asaib Ahl al-Haq effectively serve as the military wing of the Coordination Framework, the political alliance governing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s administration. The economic ties are just as binding. Iran supplies a fifth of Iraq's consumer goods and has long used Iraq to bypass US sanctions. With bilateral trade hitting $12 billion in 2024, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz doesn't just hurt Iran; it cripples Iraq’s national budget and its ability to pay civil servants. The most profound miscalculation, however, may be a cultural one. Trump and Hegseth appear ignorant of the theological framework that drives Iranian resilience. In Shia Islam, martyrdom is not a defeat but a blessing. The Battle of Karbala in 680 AD remains the cornerstone of this identity, where Husayn’s sacrifice against injustice became an eternal symbol of struggle. It is a time of intense devotion and remembrance that reinforces a "resistance" mindset. By failing to understand this history, the US administration underestimated a government and a people prepared for a long-term struggle. I fear that because of this strategic and cultural blindness, a long, grueling war is only just beginning. *David L. Phillips is an Academic Visitor at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University. He worked with the US State Department’s Near Eastern Affairs Bureau on the Future of Iraq Project during the Iraq War. This article has been edited to conform to Shafaq News’ editorial style. The views expressed are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Shafaq News Agency.